Too Early To Judge

Did they all get it wrong? An even bigger concern is whether they are still getting it wrong. Trump, Modi, Merkel, Johnson, Conte and the rest of the world leaders. Are they leading us to safe waters or bringing on a storm of Tsunamic proportions? Some locked down their country and some did not. Some have announced stimulus’ while others are waiting for things unfold. In the darkest of times which leader has made the right choices and whose decisions are bringing on a despondent future?

Possibly for the first time in history, there is no incontrovertible right answer. Even if there is one, at this point in the crisis, it is certain that neither you, any head of state or I know the right way forward.

For leaders of countries this is a watershed moment. In their lifetime, no crisis or calamity will ever eclipse what they face today. There have been wars, terror attacks, famines, floods, recessions and financial meltdowns. Yet, this faceless enemy is more unpredictable, dangerous and destructive than any they have faced.  

The stakes are higher, much higher. The current crisis impacts health on multiple levels. The health of their citizens and the health of the economy. To balance the two is almost impossible and expecting any leader to do it perfectly is naïve.

A problem can be managed if you know what the problem is. In this case, we don’t.

An article in an economics newspaper talks about the types of projection models being used by countries to predict how the virus is likely to spread and impact its citizens. Despite an unusually united world when it comes to the virus there doesn’t seem to be a consensus on the right projection model. The nature of the situation demands updating the models with new data or in some cases ignoring data all together and getting feedback from medical practitioners. Moreover, each of the models being used has its own set of flaws. Which begs the question, which model is accurate? Are any of them? And if none of the models are reliable then how does one make a decision on what to do with a country? How do you solve a problem when you don’t know what it is?

Then there is the challenge that every country has its own unique characteristics. The population size, economy, deficit, reserves, infrastructure, current spread, average age are exclusive problems for each nation. So is it fair to compare actions taken in one country versus another? Does a lockdown in one country indicate a right move and no lockdown in another indicate an error in judgement? Should countries and their action to curb the virus and protect the economy even be compared?

Fortunately for armchair critics and talking heads on television, the results of the trial that leaders are undergoing will not be released for a some time. Both the zealous condemnation and fervent praise of their leaders choices will long be forgotten before we know the outcome. Not until at least year passes us by will we know which leader made the right decisions. Any judgement on leadership prior to that is premature. Even if the virus is contained in a month or two the impact on the economy cannot be assessed for at least a year, if not more.

In a year, when the verdict is announced, some will be hailed heroes and some will fall short, but one thing for certain is that during this period no head of state is going to be perfect. There will be miscalculations and missteps along the way. They will need to adapt, be alert and reactive, back track when required, change strategy and correct themselves, sometimes dramatically. They are going to say something and realise days later, they were wrong. In this crisis, that may even be acceptable. It is inevitably going to happen to everyone who sits in the dreaded decision chair. If your expectation is that your leader should be infallible in such times then you’re sure to be let down.

Wait for a year and then form a judgement. Until then, spare us the criticism or unnecessary praise. Stay safe and be patient.